Dedication
PART I
Roads to Sarajevo
1. Serbian Ghosts
Murder in Belgrade
‘Irresponsible Elements’
Mental Maps
Separation
Escalation
Three Turkish Wars
The Conspiracy
Nikola Pašić Reacts
2. The Empire without Qualities
Conflict and Equilibrium
The Chess Players
Lies and Forgeries
Deceptive Calm
Hawks and Doves
PART II
One Continent Divided
3. The Polarization of Europe, 1887–1907
Dangerous Liaison: the Franco-Russian Alliance
The Judgement of Paris
The End of British Neutrality
Belated Empire: Germany
The Great Turning Point?
Painting the Devil on the Wall
4. The Many Voices of European Foreign Policy
Sovereign Decision-makers
Who Governed in St Petersburg?
Who Governed in Paris?
Who Governed in Berlin?
The Troubled Supremacy of Sir Edward Grey
The Agadir Crisis of 1911
Soldiers and Civilians
The Press and Public Opinion
The Fluidity of Power
5. Balkan Entanglements
Air Strikes on Libya
Balkan Helter-skelter
The Wobbler
The Balkan Winter Crisis of 1912–13
Bulgaria or Serbia?
Austria’s Troubles
The Balkanization of the Franco-Russian Alliance
Paris Forces the Pace
Poincaré under Pressure
6. Last Chances: Détente and Danger, 1912–1914
The Limits of Détente
‘Now or Never’
Germans on the Bosphorus
The Balkan Inception Scenario
A Crisis of Masculinity?
How Open Was the Future?
PART III
Crisis
7. Murder in Sarajevo
The Assassination
Flashbulb Moments
The Investigation Begins
Serbian Responses
What Is to Be Done?
8. The Widening Circle
Reactions Abroad
Count Hoyos Goes to Berlin
The Road to the Austrian Ultimatum
The Strange Death of Nikolai Hartwig
9. The French in St Petersburg
Count de Robien Changes Trains
M. Poincaré Sails to Russia
The Poker Game
10. The Ultimatum
Austria Demands
Serbia Responds
A ‘Local War’ Begins
11. Warning Shots
Firmness Prevails
‘It’s War This Time’
Russian Reasons
12. Last Days
A Strange Light Falls upon the Map of Europe
Poincaré Returns to Paris
Russia Mobilizes
The Leap into the Dark
‘There Must Be Some Misunderstanding’
The Tribulations of Paul Cambon
Britain Intervenes
Belgium
Boots
Conclusion
Notes
Index
1. Petar I Karadjordjević (Corbis)
2. King Alexandar and Queen Draga
3.
Assassination of the Obrenović, from4. Young Gavrilo Princip
5. Nedeljko Čabrinović
6. Milan Ciganović (Roger Viollet/Getty Images)
7. Count Leopold Berchtold (Popperfoto/Getty Images)
8. Conrad von Hötzendorf (Getty Images)
9. Franz Ferdinand, Archduke of Austria-Este
10. Théophile Delcassé
11. ‘The Scramble for China’, by Henri Meyer,
12. Wilhelm II and Nicholas II wearing the uniforms of each other’s countries (Hulton Royals Collection/Getty Images)
13. Wilhelm II (Bettmann/Corbis)
14. Edward VII in his uniform as colonel of the Austrian 12th Hussars
15. Pyotr Stolypin (Popperfoto/Getty Images)
16. Joseph Caillaux (Hulton Archive/Getty Images)
17. Paul Cambon
18. Sir Edward Grey