Читать онлайн «The Lady Tasting Tea»
Автор David Salsburg
Dedicated to Fran, my dear wife of 42 years. As I accumulated stories about the men and women who made the statistical revolution during my career, she kept urging me to put them in a nonmathematical book. Fran, who has no mathematical training, helped me through the several revisions of this book, pointing out to me sections where my explanations were not clear. This book, especially those parts that are clearly understandable, is due to her persistence.
—W. H.
AUDEN—FLORENCE NIGHTINGALE
Table of Contents
Title Page
Epigraph
AUTHOR’S PREFACE
CHAPTER 1 - THE LADY TASTING TEA
THE COOPERATIVE NATURE OF SCIENCE
CHAPTER 2 - THE SKEW DISTRIBUTIONS
THE GALTON BIOMETRICAL LABORATORY
CORRELATION AND REGRESSION
DISTRIBUTIONS AND PARAMETERS
THE PLAN OF
CHAPTER 3 - THAT DEAR MR. GOSSET
THE BIRTH OF “STUDENT”
“STUDENT”’S T-TEST
CHAPTER 4 - RAKING OVER THE MUCK HEAP
FISHER VERSUS KARL PEARSON
FISHER THE “FASCIST”
ROTHAMSTED AND AGRICULTURAL EXPERIMENTS
CHAPTER 5 - “STUDIES IN CROP VARIATION”
“STUDIES IN CROP VARIATION. I”
GALTON’S REGRESSION TO THE MEAN GENERALIZED
RANDOMIZED CONTROLLED EXPERIMENTS
FISHER’S ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE
DEGREES OF FREEDOM
“STUDIES IN CROP VARIATION. III”
CHAPTER 6 - “THE HUNDRED-YEAR FLOOD”
THE DISTRIBUTION OF EXTREMES
POLITICAL MURDER
CHAPTER 7 - FISHER TRIUMPHANT
THE FISHERIAN VERSUS THE PEARSONIAN VIEW OF STATISTICS
FISHER’S MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD METHODS
ITERATIVE ALGORITHMS
CHAPTER 8 - THE DOSE THAT KILLS
PROBIT ANALYSIS
BLISS IN SOVIET LENINGRAD DURING THE STALIN TERRORS
CHAPTER 9 - THE BELL-SHAPED CURVE
WHAT IS THE CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM?
FROM LINDEBERG-LÉVY TO U-STATISTICS
HOEFFDING IN BERLIN
OPERATIONS RESEARCH
CHAPTER 10 - TESTING THE GOODNESS OF FIT
CHAOS THEORY AND GOODNESS OF FIT
PEARSON’S GOODNESS OF FIT TEST
TESTING WHETHER THE LADY CAN TASTE A DIFFERENCE IN THE TEA
FISHER’S USE OF P-VALUES
JERZY NEYMAN’S MATHEMATICAL EDUCATION
NEYMAN’S STYLE OF MATHEMATICS
CHAPTER 11 - HYPOTHESIS TESTING
WHAT IS PROBABILITY?
THE FREQUENTIST DEFINITION OF PROBABILITY
CHAPTER 12 - THE CONFIDENCE TRICK
NEYMAN’S SOLUTION
PROBABILITY VERSUS CONFIDENCE LEVEL
CHAPTER 13 - THE BAYESIAN HERESY
QUESTIONS ABOUT “INVERSE PROBABILITY”
THE BAYESIAN HIERARCHAL MODEL
PERSONAL PROBABILITY
CHAPTER 14 - THE MOZART OF MATHEMATICS
KOLMOGOROV, THE MAN
KOLMOGOROV’S WORK IN MATHEMATICAL STATISTICS
WHAT IS PROBABILITY IN REAL LIFE?
AFTER NOTE ON THE FAILURES OF SOVIET STATISTICS
CHAPTER 15 - THE WORM’S-EYE VIEW
WORKING FOR K. P.
WAR WORK
CHAPTER 16 - DOING AWAY WITH PARAMETERS
FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS
UNSOLVED PROBLEMS
CHAPTER 17 - WHEN PART IS BETTER THAN THE WHOLE
THE NEW DEAL AND SAMPLING
JEROME CORNFIELD
ECONOMIC INDICES
CHAPTER 18 - DOES SMOKING CAUSE CANCER?
